New Hampshire Primary: Crib Sheet

One of the expected outcomes of New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary has been to winnow the field. “Winnow” is an interesting word: It means “to blow something away until you are left with what you want.” It’s a word we’ll get back to in this campaign season. But for now, here are some notes on the candidates still standing. Debate rules, since modified, excluded some candidates months ago. But some refused to quit. Instead, they doubled down on public events in Iowa and New Hampshire. All that driving up and down the state in the rain, sleet and snow argue for including them here.

Despite what President Trump told an overflow rally in Manchester on the eve of today’s vote, there is, in fact, a Republican primary in New Hampshire. I will be writing more on how the White House managed to suppress many GOP primaries across the country once I understand it better. (It’s not unique to this White House, but interesting nonetheless.)  

Let me know if these notes are useful. If you value polls, you’ll find the latest here. The variation in net worth among these candidates is staggering. If you’re wondering why the margins in reporting net worth are so large, especially for the highest incomes, you can take it up with the US Senate. I tried for years to figure out why reporting requirements were written this way — and failed. 

A question for you: Is winnowing the field before a single vote necessary? Is this process giving voters what they need?  

From field notes and photos: 

Joe Biden 

• Former two-term vice president in the Obama administration. Biden served in the US Senate from 1973-2009.  Born in 1942.

• Financial disclosure: Net worth  $2,137,033 (min.)/$7,924,998 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $237,261
• Keyword or phrase: “restore the soul of America.”
• One big idea:  A record of accomplishment in the Obama administration and the Senate that makes him “ready on Day 1” to provide “steady, stable, experienced leadership” repair US relationships around the world. 
• Campaign T-shirt: $30 
• Political style:  A famously warm personal style, though occasionally punctuated with testy exchanges captured on cell phones and widely circulated. Biden uses a teleprompter and/or printed text to deliver a stump speech that varies only slightly from event to event. While he doesn’t always take questions, when he does, they are unvetted, But he always includes time for rope-line chats. Those uneasy with close proximity do well to step back a little.

Michael Bennet

• Two-term US senator from Colorado and former superintendent of Denver public schools. Appointed to the Senate to fill a vacancy in 2009, elected in 2010, reelected in 2016. Born in 1964.
• Financial disclosure: Net worth  $6,527,029 (min.)/$25,630,000 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $21,370
• Keyword or phrase: “I will take every question and I will take any criticism.”

• One big idea: While much of the discussion in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary has been about help for college students, Bennet says he would rather see the help go to funding pre-school education.  A  key player in several (rare) bipartisan efforts toward reform in the US Senate, he says that big changes, such as sharply reducing childhood poverty, are possible.
• Campaign T-shirt: $25  
• Political style:  A veteran of 50 town hall meetings in New Hampshire, Bennet encourages open discussion and even solicits followup — a practice that has all but vanished in other campaigns. He speaks without notes and isn’t rattled by hostile questions. One voter who attended campaign events up and down the state said she’d never seen a candidate so eager to engage an audience, even small one.  He may have been excluded from recent Democratic debates, but no Democrat hosted more campaign events in New Hampshire (97) this primary season. 

Pete Buttigieg

• Former mayor of South Bend, Ind., “Mayor Pete” served seven months in Afghanistan as an intelligence officer in the US Navy Reserve.  Born in 1982.
• Financial disclosure: Net worth -$277,990 (min.)/$166,988 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $406,217, No. 2 behind Bernie Sanders.
• Keyword or phrase: “belonging.” 
• One big idea:  Pete Buttigieg begins his campaign stump speech by asking his audiences to think about the day when Donald Trump is no longer president. “Are we ready to put the chaos behind us? Ready to put the meanness behind us?” To do urgent, bold, big things requires getting beyond gridlock and polarization to “usher in a new era of American politics.”
• Campaign T-shirt $27
• Political style: Mayor Pete’s unexpected rise to the top ranks of Democratic contenders may have been helped by a political style that is the opposite of toxic. He urges Democrats to get out from behind partisan walls and work with Independents and “future former Republicans,” as well as Democrats. In responding to questions, he draws on his experiences in the military or as a “gay man in Pence’s Indiana,” as well as his religious faith. In early town meetings, staff selected questions out of a jar and read them, leading to some speculation that the questions had been vetted. In the final days of the campaign, he fielded his own questions from the audience. It worked better. 

Tulsi Gabbard

• US Representative from Hawaii, elected in 2012 — the first Hindu elected to the US Congress. She is also a war veteran with two tours of duty in the Middle East as a major with the Hawaii Army National Guard. Born in 1981.

• Financial disclosure: Net worth -$509,000 (min.)/$580,000 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $70,371
• Keyword or phrase:  Aloha = respect, compassion. 
• One big idea: Being the world’s policeman is not an achievable objective. We need cooperation, not conflict. The power and ability to overcome these issues lies in our hearts, not “regime-change wars.” 
• Campaign T-shirt: $24.99
• Political Style: Tulsi Gabbard moved to Manchester in early December, and maintained a daily schedule of town hall meetings, house parties, and even a snowboarding event. By mid-January, she was greeting many people at her events by name. She doesn’t use a teleprompter or notes, doesn’t appear to have a standard stump speech, and answers any question asked. At an event in Claremont, NH, on Jan. 23, she baffled her audience by talking exclusively about the decision to move the Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds before midnight, reported in the morning newspaper. She barely referred to an election.  She led the Democratic field in a number of events in New Hampshire (96) for most of the primary season, but in the closing hours, was edged out by Michael Bennet.

Amy Klobuchar

• The first female US senator from Minnesota, elected in 2006, reelected in 2012 and 2018. Born in 1960.

• Financial disclosure: Net worth $900,025 (min.)/$2,275,000 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $125,642
• Keyword or phrase: “Who does that?” [a reference to President Trump]
• One big idea:  I win every race, in every place, everywhere, and every time, including places, President Trump, won by more than 20 points. To beat him, Democrats must win big in November. They need a candidate who can rally moderate Republicans and Independents, as well as a fired-up Democratic base.  
• Campaign T-shirt: $29
• Political style: Crisp, buoyant, pragmatic style, laced with humor. She does not always provide for questions at her events, which sometimes a source of grumbling in the audience.  Nor does she have the conspicuous warmth of a Joe Biden. But in an often grim political climate, she conveys a sense of joy in politics, not unlike another storied US senator from Minnesota, Hubert “Happy Warrior” Humphrey. Her confident and calm debate performances, including spontaneous humor and the occasional edgy rebuke, raised her profile, polling, and fundraising in a crowded field. 

Deval Patrick

• Two-term Massachusetts governor ( 2007-2015), former managing director at Bain Capital, a private equity firm in Boston.

• Financial disclosure: Net worth $2,452,097 (min.)/$10,546,013 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $0 [Funds raised in Boston Metro area: $1,063,070.]
• Keyword or phrase: Reject false choices.
• One big idea: Building a bridge to common ground. The US has been “disinvesting in time and money to make the American dream available to everyone.” It’s easy to divide us because we don’t even know each other, he says, referring to Trump-era debates on immigration and race. “We’re better than this. I am a proud Democrat, but I don’t think you have to hate Republicans to be a good Democrat.”
• Campaign T-shirt: $30
• Political style:  Deval Patrick has an inspiring personal story that took him from the South Side of Chicago to Harvard University, not unlike that of his close friend, Barack Obama. Like President Obama, he is rigorously temperate and eloquent. The first question he fields at campaign events is typically: Why did you get into this race so late?” His answer: “Have you decided whom to vote for yet?” [No] “…Then I didn’t get into this race too late.” Most in the audience laugh, but the paucity of staff and resources is evident in every aspect of this campaign. Always in the background is the prospect that an endorsement from President Obama, at the right moment, could give his campaign a big lift. 

Bernie Sanders

• US senator from Vermont since 2007, US Representative (1991-2007), mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981-89). Born in 1941.

• Financial disclosure: Net worth $729,030 (min.)/$1,837,701 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $535,154
• Keyword or phrase: Political revolution, Top 1 percent
• One big idea: A mass movement of working people  prepared to stand up to drug companies and the pharmaceutical industry. This political revolution will enable broad social and economic change, including a new single-payer health care plan (Medicare for All), a minimum wage at $15 an hour.  equal pay for women. cancellation of all student debt and lower barriers to the creation of unions. “Now is the time not only to defeat Donald Trump but to complete that revolution.”
• Campaign T-shirt: $27
• Political Style: There is no easy answer to how a politician can be in public life for nearly 30 years yet still be viewed as an outsider.  One reason, cited often by supporters, is the consistency of his message over decades. His core stump speech varies in its elements but never changes in principle.  He speaks from a platform high above the crowd, maintains tight security, including searches at entrances and a swift departure for hecklers. He rarely takes questions, but this is not seen as questionable because it, too, is consistent. 

Tom Steyer

• Former hedge fund investor and key contributor to Democratic causes. 
• Financial disclosure: Net worth $618,640,163 (min.)/$1,549,263,013 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $14,696
• Keyword or phrase: “Climate is my No. 1 priority.”
• One big idea: While resolving climate emergencies is the top priority, the possibility that President Trump might win a second term at the polls is an urgent concern as well. The only way to make sure that doesn’t happen is to “kick his ass on the economy,” Steyer told New Hampshire Democrats at their annual McIntyre-Shaheen Dinner on Feb. 8.  At the same time, he saw the political system as deeply compromised by corporate influence, voter suppression, and a lack of political transparency.  Hence, a personal run for the presidency and a bid for significant political reform.                                       
• Campaign T-shirt: $20
• Political style:  Steyer had relatively little exposure to public speaking events in New Hampshire this cycle. He participated in only 31 events before the Feb. 11 vote — the lowest number among remaining contenders. (Biden attended only 35.) He repeated the “kick his ass” line 10 times in remarks at the McIntyre-Shaheen Dinner. Eight or nine times may have sufficed to make the point. 

Elizabeth Warren

• US senator from Massachusetts, former law professor and consumer activist.  Born in 1949.

• Financial disclosure: Net worth $4,880,022 (min.)/$11,075,000 (max.)
• Funds raised in New Hampshire: $320,787
• Keyword or phrase: Dream big, fight hard and win. 
• One big idea: “When we see a big problem, offer a big solution and fight for it,” she says.  In fact, Warren has developed 72 plans. These, she says, “were not  carefully calibrated not to offend big donors. Here are the two most recent plans:  “Fighting Digital Disinformation” and “Preventing, containing and treating infectious disease outbreaks at home and abroad.” Many of these plans make for interesting reads. But 72 of them may detract from the concept of
• Campaign Tee (fitted version): $30
• Political Style:  She addresses large crowds in the same manner that she uses with small groups — that is, earnest, importunate. Her style is a sharp contrast to the calm, avuncular style that Bernie Sanders has perfected. 

Andrew Yang

• Former tech entrepreneur, founder of Venture for America, a nonprofit to restore local industrial activity. Born in 1975.

• Financial disclosure: Net worth $584,047 (min.)/$2,276,015 (max.) 
• Funds raised in New Hampshire $116,128
• Keyword or phrase: Numbers guy. 
• One big idea: Yang is the only candidate to speak explicitly and often about Trump voters. If you were to turn on cable news, why would you think that Donald Trump won?” he asks. Audiences offer predictable  answers:  the Russians, Hillary Clinton, Facebook, E-mails, the DNC, etc.  Then, the big idea: “I’m a number’s guy,” he adds. “I went through the numbers looking for an explanation, and I found it.” Short version:  the US lost 4 million manufacturing jobs in places like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri, and — all swing states in the 2016 Election. Amazon, automation, and robot trucks will eat up many more. Alaskans receive payments for that state’s oil wealth.  Don’t Americans deserve their “fair share” of every Google search, Facebook ad, robot truck mile, and A.I.work unit?  
• Campaign T-shirt: $15.00 (on sale)
• Political Style: No candidate has used questions and answers as effectively as Yang in this campaign cycle. The campaign hands out free copies of his book: “The War on Normal People: The Truth About America’s Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future.” When he is in the state, Yang produces up to five of these “town meetings” per day, at different venues across a state riddled with back roads and potholes. He often doesn’t take questions, perhaps because of this scheduling. When he does, they are unvetted. Some in the audience are cool to this approach, But those who like it, dubbed Yang Gang, follow him around the state.